Zelda Mafia Round 2 Night One (IMPORTANT, REPLACEMENT NEEDED!)

[The Missing Link]

how about you tell me what the odds are that one person can get an accurate hit-rate like the one I did last game and it be entirely Luck?

Well, let's call bluff. HotD, name the person you believe to most likely be Mafia this round.

[heh]

i'd love to continue arguing but i have to go play ssbm and quake and stuff.

i think you'll all agree this is serious business

[I am nobody]

And so you have a hard decision, IAN... will you believe the lies and vote me off as Mafia??? Or are you going to actually believe that I'm telling thr truth?

Why is everyone acting like I voted for you? Although you are very suspicious right now, I voted Blake.

[ZeldaGirl]

^I apologize, ian, it was just that one statement you made that made a little alarm in my head go off.

That Guy, go off - that IS important stuff you have to do.


Actually, Hottie, I am with TML - I'm interested to see who YOU think is most likely to be guilty and mafia. I mean, you didn't hesitate outright voting Daos last round...what's the scoop this time 'round?

[Heroine of the Dragon]

That is not the argument HotD is using. She is saying that we will have to explain our votes against her.

Well WHY NOT????

Where's your evidence that I am Mafia??? There is none, will be none and you cannot sit there and truly believe that it won't matter if you make a "mistake" on Day One by just randomly voting off a Townie because we had to have a lynching... without having someone later on demand to know where your head was when the evidence was totally fabricated.

[Blake]

First order of business:

Vote: Abstain

I'm not sure how HoTD even got so much attention in the first place.

---

Introduction: What the hell is wrong with me?

Alright, there is a method to my madness, and many of you aren’t going to like it cause it ain’t pretty.

Well I for one am not sure why HoTD has attracted more attention than myself. Aren’t I the one that made the stupid mistakes?

Well regardless, it all goes like this:

I was supposed to be the one that did the math this round, not you Wy
Well anyhow, didn't make much of a difference, I was still able to dish out a ridiculous post (Post 100) about excluding my former mafia bros and sis this round. A few of you noticed this ridiculous post commented a bit on this. I then followed up with a few posts to try get people's attention. Still to no avail. Quite ironically, I finally I do make an honest mistake: I was supposed to be suspicious cause I was gonna abstain, not because of my 'not all mafia screwed up theory' in (post 419) and get some attention.
But still not enough. I vote HoTD just so I could get some attention. Finally I got the much needed attention in (post 538).



So what does this all mean? It was originally a theory to observe which mafia would vote for me first and their order of voting. However, I had to use this on HoTD. And now I have the support for my theories about what's going on in the background...

The connection between Wyborn, Rayman, and Shadow Kirby



The Observation

This is the evidence I have unearthed that goes against all three of them:

(Post 51)Rayman posts "Don't let the Black Hand Bite!"
(Post 42) Wyborn says "Wait what?"
(Post 51) Wyborn Foses Rayman for his statement earlier.
(Post 53) Rayman explains that's its a synonym and whatnot.
(Post 55) Wyborn retracts his Fos almost instantly.

Observation: It appears Wyborn wants to appear to have conflict with Rayman to ward suspicion off each other so the Mafia don't look organized and recognizable.

Question(Wyborn): Why did you make a big deal of this? HoTD used the "Don't let the Mafia bite!" quote in her last game. It's not like you were new to this. I think it was quite apparent that whatever Black Hand meant is that it was no good to townies.



(Post 64) Wyborn asks if we're going to hang someone.

Observation: It appears that he was reluctant to take the lead for a minute, which contradicts his general behavior. Later on (I can't pin down the post in this 27 heap stack mess) he almost complains though that he isn't leading and that HoTD or someone else is. Again, I can't find the post but if I do I can get my point here, so this one will leave be just for reference for now.



(Post 102) Wyborn just simply warns me in the danger of eliminating these people.

Observation: He warns me about this which is all nice and dandy. He could have questioned my reasoning better about this, but it appeared to me he was cool about my post. If I don't suspect him perhaps I would prove invaluable to the mafia?

Question(Wyborn): If I'm too specific with this post I won't get anything useful, but what can you say to convince me of my thoughts about that post?



(Post 117)Rayman also warns me about this danger. He also questions Chunky and Wyborn about their accusations of each other.

Observation: Rayman being the first to suspect me made me initially wonder about his alignment. He was slightly more harsh than Wyborn was about my post and wanted an answer, yet was kind about it. It made me feel that he wanted to protect his role and see if others suspect me. He also appears to be against Wyborn at this stage still which brings up a later discussion about their arguement.



(Post 133)Wyborn accuses CL, Daos, and ZG.
(Post 136)Rayman doesn't agree with Wyborn's Fos of ZG, but agree more with his against Daos.

(Post 208)Wyborn talks about slasher.
(Post 209)Rayman talks about slasher.
(Post 213)Wyborn talks about slasher.
(Post 214)Rayman talks about slasher.
(Post 217)Wyborn talks about slasher.
(Post 221)

Observation: This is basically just more arguing between the two of them. They made a rather big deal out of the slasher ordeal. This implies to me that they want to continue to argue, again, to make themselves look less affiliated with each other in their mafia operations.



(Post 184) Rayman brings up me and Chunky briefly.

Observation: It just looks like to me that Rayman wanted to try and take another stab at drawing attention at me. That post, afterall, makes me look like an easy target for making such rash conclusions. No one pays note however.



(Post 302)Wyborn brings up the Chunky issue once more.
(Post 304)Rayman shortly follows and Foses Chunky.
(Post 311)Shadow Kirby shortly follows up on ZG's Fos.

Observation: Rayman, despite all his arguing with Wyborn now appears to agree with Wyborn on this event. This leads to a chain of events that gets me wondering on.
Wyborn is still persistent in getting Chunky, which isn't too big of a deal but what strikes me more is that he says "Man being a townie is liberating." I personally do not believe ANYONE who mentions "Us townies, I a townie" or whatever. Whenever I hear that I automatically just assume they are not townie.
Shadow Kirby begins to get more involved now it seems. With Wy's strengthed fos of ZG it appears as if all three are working together to oust her out. This leads into a chain of events too with similar support.

Question(Wyborn): As of this point you mentioned being a townie. But later in your accusations against ZG you warn her not to reveal that she's a townie, yet if you post here is true then you are indeed a townie which would contradict your point then. So why did you make a big deal out of ZG's 'mistake' when you supposedly made the same one?



(Post 312)Wyborn gets pretty serious with his Fos of ZG.
(Post 316)SK shortly follows with an ZG fos.

Observation: Again, SK seems to follow Wyborn on his Fos of ZG.




(Post 321))Rayman Foses Marilink.
(Post 323)Wyborn shortly Foses Marilink. Strengthens his fos of ZG.
(Post 341)After Wyborn retracted his Fos on ZG, so does SK. He Foses Marilink when Rayman is almost sure he's going to vote for Marilink.

Observation: Wyborn and Rayman think alike for quite a few Foses now.
SK shows signs of following the two of them again. He retracts his Fos of ZG after Wyborn and Foses Marilink after Rayman almost votes for Marilink. Oh yes, let's note that Shadow Kirby did this in ONE POST, just like Wyborn did his in one post; very similar behavior.

Question(Wyborn and Rayman): Why does it seem suddenly that you two have very similar thinking patterns? Because the first portion of this day it seems you guys almost contradict each other.

Question(All): What's with working to together on so many instances?

Strange Thought To Last Observation: Wyborn was the first to introduce the 'Retract Fos' in this game. I've seen Rayman and SK also 'Retract' their foses. They're some of the first to do so. Ian on the other hand said he'll 'withdraw' his fos.

It's not exactly the best argument, but as I said earlier, if they're conversing then they're more aware of Wyborn's actions than we are. They are going to be the one to remember the 'retract' than the others here. Personally, I don't even remember hearing that word in my life. Wyborn started it though and it seemed to follow with them using that word.



(Post 335)Rayman tells Chunky that Wyborn is suspicious about him and to be ready to answer to him.

Observation: The fact that Rayman's been appearing to support Wyborn as of lately seems to show that he knows quite a bit of Wyborn. Had they not been talking on a mafia board, I doubt that Rayman would remember quite well what other people's reactions were to a situation that occured hundreds of posts ago.



(Post 355)Rayman retracts his Fos on chunky. He implies that he's just about ready to vote for Marilink. Repeats his voting ordeal in post 364.
(Post 367)Shadow Kirby shows he's still against Marilink.
(Post 386)Wyborn also follows up saying he'll probably vote for Marilink.
(Post 421)Rayman continues to suspect Marilink

Observation: Yet again more co-op between them.

Question(Shadow Kirby): Why at this point were you more inclined to believe he was suspicious?



(Post 444)Finally Raymen Foses me again after some people saw my next slip up post. He brings up my first post for a third time and it finally goes into effect.
(Post 448)He brings up my first post to use against me.

Observation: I had a feeling that Rayman was dieing to bring up this issue with me. So I expected him to sooner or later do so.



(Post 463)Wyborn Foses me and HoTD. He votes for HoTD.

Observation: Interesting, it seems that Wyborn is disagreeing with Rayman at this stage in the game. By voting different to get the Mafia to vote differently so it doesn't look so obvious.

Question(Wyborn): Why do you suddenly turn your attention to HoTD? Why did you Fos Marilink who was against HoTD earlier? What did HoTD post after Marilink was accused that made you suspicious?



((Post 470))Wyborn is willing to change to vote for me.

Observation: Now that I'm even a weaker link, the Mafia is willing to rid anyone to gain a significant advantage.



(Post 479)Wyborn sticks to voting HoTD.

Observation: Wants to divide part of the mafia's vote so it doesn't look obvious who they are.



(Post 385)Rayman again supports Wyborn.

Observation: More support.



(Post 487)Wyborn admits to being a townie again.

Question(Wyborn): This basically goes back to the previous time you mentioned townie. Only after you talked to ZG about her mistake, you make the same mistake if you are indeed townie. So why do you make this mistake again?



((Post 521))Looks like Rayman tries to argue with Wyborn again but agrees with him at the same time.
(Post 526) Agrees with Wyborn once more.

Observation: Just more back and fourth about how they agree and disagree so often.



The Analysis

Alright, no more links.

So basically I vote HoTD.

Wyborn gets disgusted since it makes him look more suspicious. Rayman is also suspicious of me still. However, I would be tomorrow's talk of the day since they are trying to get HoTD out.

Now voting order?

#1 Wyborn(HoTD)
#2 Daos(Balke)
#3 Blake(HoTD)
#4 Cucco Lady(HoTD)
#5 Rayman(HoTD)
#6 Ian or TML(Blake / HoTD)
#7
#8 Shadow Kirby(Blake)

Now the list:
Blake:
- Daos
- Ian
- Shadow Kirby

HoTD:
- Wyborn
- Blake(Withdrew as of right now)
- Cucco Lady
- Rayman
- TML



These are the results I wanted. The whole idea was to get enough attention on me to see which mafia would vote for me. I calculated 40% of the mafia to vote for me. This did not work. So instead I had to use HoTD.

Now Wyborn is first, which isn't a big surprise. But Rayman posted 3 after him, spaced his vote out like a typical mafia. And SK? I was expecting him to vote for HoTD but he voted me to probably split the Mafia's votes.

And THIS is why I suspect the three of them.



Conclusion
I have a very strong feeling that Wyborn, Rayman, and SK are all working together and there's a good chance I'll be sticking to it for a while. Honestly it doesn't matter if you guys believe it or not. It doesn't matter if I get hung today.

I made my own role for this game of Mafia. To create a list of possible suspects from Day One. The point is the Mafia would LOVE to kill a townie today. The slasher has a lesser chance of killing their own and the mafia make a kill. Two days of this and they're almost all set.

The idea of my list is to mark off the possible suspects on this list. Once a member is marked off, it gives a greater chance that one of those is mafia.

For example:
If Rayman and Wyborn are the only two alive later in the game and me CL and TML are dead, then there's good reason to suspect them.

All I ask is SOMEONE to consider this list as the game goes on if I'm not alive. It's an experiment. It might be wrong but it might also help.

Now it's time to Post and update this with more statistical data and see what's new on the voting list since I spent 2 hours on this post.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

*laughs* NIIIICE... just set me up some more... right now, TML and ZG, I have no inclination to answer you in case you're Mafia and want proof you should hit me tonight if the Townies can't lynch one of their own. Thanks for asking, however.

[ZeldaGirl]

Blake, I'm thanking your post because of sheer EFFORT AND AMAZEMENT. O_O

[Daos]

The post does need thanked as it brings up some new questions.

[ZeldaGirl]

I apologize for the wording, Hottie... what I was trying to get at is you don't even have the slightest SUSPICION of people? I mean, last game, you had a suspect every round... I mean, is there any ONE person that sticks out.

Blake, I'll address your post in a minute...

[Heroine of the Dragon]

Awesome dossier you got going there, Blake. I'm impressed!!!

[Rainbow Dash]

Let me ask you this, HotD, who, besides yourself, is the least suspicious, in your eyes.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

I already answered that question... much to Wy's chagrin. Pay attention to what upsets, Wy.

After all, how could anyone, let alone a lucky faerie have started working out any suspects to narrow her focus upon, HUH?????

That last post was to ZG...

And, Chunky, I trust two people in this game so far... and I may die regretting it.

[Daos]

I think the real question remains is why is Wyborn pushing towards a lynch so much?

[Marilink]

Blake, I gotta say I love your post and I love the way to played some mindgames.

Still not totally convinced about everything, though--there's a lot going on.

So...

FoS: HotD (still, but not as much. I'm more worrried about her being slasher than Mafia), Wy, SK, and Rayman

At least until I get some explanation up in here.

[Rainbow Dash]

To offset the push for abstain last time, maybe.

[Microphone_Kirby]

Hmmmm...
I must admit, that's quite an argument Blake, but you only told us why you think me, Wyborn, and Rayman are Mafia. You didn't seem to try to save yourself or explain your sudden vote for Hottie...

And to answer your question:

[quote="Blake]Question(Shadow Kirby): Why at this point were you more inclined to believe he was suspicious?[/quote"]

I think that Marilink Retracted his FoS because he was trying to remove the suspicion that was on himself, which in turn made me more suspicious.

[Marilink]

I'm not sure how HoTD even got so much attention in the first place.

My fault.

Hmmmm...
I must admit, that's quite an argument Blake, but you only told us why you think me, Wyborn, and Rayman are Mafia. You didn't seem to try to save yourself or explain your sudden vote for Hottie...

And to answer your question:



I think that Marilink Retracted his FoS because he was trying to remove the suspicion that was on himself, which in turn made me more suspicious.

I gave you my reason for retracting: Because it was stupid. The FoS was moer of a warning than anything, and I figured it didn't work as I intended and was no longer necessary.

Anyway, I gotta go to a basketball game. I'll see you all later.

[ZeldaGirl]

I'm going to take this opportunity to apologize to Blake for suspecting him so much. He is not OFF THE HOOK, take note, but he did make many points that made a lot of sense.

The connection between Wyborn, Rayman, and Shadow Kirby

You weren't the only one who noticed that, though I must say, the first two were the ones that stood out in my mind the most.

Question(Wyborn): Why did you make a big deal of this? HoTD used the "Don't let the Mafia bite!" quote in her last game. It's not like you were new to this. I think it was quite apparent that whatever Black Hand meant is that it was no good to townies.

Wow, good memory. I hadn't thought of that.

Observation: It appears that he was reluctant to take the lead for a minute, which contradicts his general behavior. Later on (I can't pin down the post in this 27 heap stack mess) he almost complains though that he isn't leading and that HoTD or someone else is. Again, I can't find the post but if I do I can get my point here, so this one will leave be just for reference for now.

Actually, I think you are referring to the post when he talks to ML, asking why ML didn't point him out as "leading". I could be mistaken, though.

Question(Wyborn): As of this point you mentioned being a townie. But later in your accusations against ZG you warn her not to reveal that she's a townie, yet if you post here is true then you are indeed a townie which would contradict your point then. So why did you make a big deal out of ZG's 'mistake' when you supposedly made the same one?

DAMN, I wish I had thought of this! You are absolutely correct about that! Very keen observation, Blake!

Strange Thought To Last Observation: Wyborn was the first to introduce the 'Retract Fos' in this game. I've seen Rayman and SK also 'Retract' their foses. They're some of the first to do so. Ian on the other hand said he'll 'withdraw' his fos.

I will say that I think I said "retract" as well... but I used that word after seeing Wy use it. I dunno, it stuck. So, just pointing that out.

Observation: The fact that Rayman's been appearing to support Wyborn as of lately seems to show that he knows quite a bit of Wyborn. Had they not been talking on a mafia board, I doubt that Rayman would remember quite well what other people's reactions were to a situation that occured hundreds of posts ago.

Again, this is interesting... I mean, you definitely have had first hand experience. Very interesting...

Question(Wyborn): Why do you suddenly turn your attention to HoTD? Why did you Fos Marilink who was against HoTD earlier? What did HoTD post after Marilink was accused that made you suspicious?

I was wondering about this too, but didn't bring it up because I thought it would be beating a dead horse. Glad to know I'm not the only one paranoid about that stuff.

Now it's time to Post and update this with more statistical data and see what's new on the voting list since I spent 2 hours on this post.

That's exactly why I thanked you. That's awesome, man.

For now, I'm going to "withdraw" my FoS.

[Microphone_Kirby]

I gave you my reason for retracting: Because it was stupid. The FoS was moer of a warning than anything, and I figured it didn't work as I intended and was no longer necessary.

Anyway, I gotta go to a basketball game. I'll see you all later.

Fair enough, Marilink.