Zelda Mafia Round 2 Night One (IMPORTANT, REPLACEMENT NEEDED!)

[Rayman FREAK]

^Good point.

[The Missing Link]

Yes. It says "Replacement" in the singular. We've got two characters AFK, and the sought-after replacement is currently not for Gearz's position.

If replacements are guaranteed, then my argument need not apply, and you can feel free to ignore it.

[Rayman FREAK]

I think it's fair to assume Crav will at least look for replacements for anyone he modkills.

I have to go for a few hours now. See you all later.

[ZeldaGirl]

I think Crav was trying to make it a general policy to find replacements rather than killing characters.

[I am nobody]

X-3: I see no reason to withdraw my FoS. It will not affect the game.


Also:


Fos: Chunky

( Note: Still using Wii. My computer keeps losing it's internet.)

[ZeldaGirl]

I'm going to wait until Chunky actually responds with his answer before I cast any suspicions on him. I will say, however, that if he doesn't answer soon, it makes him more suspicious.

[Apollo the Just]

[quote="ZG a while ago]Though"]

this is bumping a bit of an old discussion, but I want to put my two cents in.

So... we'd have to figure out what the slasher's specific role or aim is in order to figure out how he plans to win, so we can prevent that from happening.

We have many different theories.

If we assume the slasher is completely independent, then it would only be natural for him to win if he's the last one left...

If we assume he's part of the mafia, he'll win when they win.

If we assume he can go either way, then either of the above applies.

So, right now all we can do is just talk and find suspicions. As TML says, if the end of the day draws near and we have NO suspicions as to who's mafia or slasher, then the best thing to do is kill the inactive... but that's far from the most successful thing to do.

So... let's keep talking.


now: WHERE ARE YOU CHUNKY??
and
I'm sorry if I restated something people have already said; I was kind of skimming previous posts for the gist of them... I wanted to catch up. I'll probably go over them in more detail later.

DOUBLE POST: sorry, Wy actually addressed practically all of this... sorry, guys... I feel like an annoying NOOB right now. At any rate, as of now, I don't see anyone who's been acting really suspicious... everyone seems pretty normal. I'm torn as to who to vote for.

[Blake]

Yeah I'm also digging up an older issue about the slasher.

But I merely believe the Eastern Peninsula thing is a joke. Mikau was killed in the West Ocean obviously.

It states in the paper something like "a homicide expert" who said "Eastmost Peninsula is most definitely the secret to solving the crime."

Because of the contradictions... a smart homicidal expert who we would think would say something intelligent basically says the opposite, I find it a joke. Generally humor comes from situations that we find abnormal or the opposite. So that's my say on that.

So between the two roles, I would say a Gerudo/Pirate is who is more likely to be this slasher of the two.

Also about victory conditions, I highly doubt the slasher has to be the last standing. That's just too damn difficult even if NO ONE posted in this game except to vote. Having a 25% chance, then 33% chance, then 50% chance of being hung alone is too difficult to escape. There definitely must be another condition. Though what it is I don't know.

[Apollo the Just]

But if that's not how he wins, how the hell DOES he...?

Well, here are a few ideas:

IF HE'S PART OF THE MAFIA

-he would probably win when the mafia wins
-if the rest of the mafia besides him die, and there's no hero left, then one of two things could feasably happen:
a)he wins automatically because he's alive and the others are all townies
b)he has to get it down to him and one other townie to wib

IF HE'S COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT

one of many things could be true.

a) he has to kill off all the mafia and heroes, and when it's just him and townies, he wins.
b) he hast to get it down to him and someone else, and then what Wy posted awhile back (the 2-on-2 things) take place.
c) he has to get it down to two people and then night-kill the last person (which, admittedly, is pretty much section b)

any other thoughts on how the Slasher might win...?

[heh]

I think you may be going around this all wrong.

The Killer's objective isn't to win, Its too unlikely. The Killers objective is to kill whoever he wants to kill. Since its unlikely hes going win, hes probably going to pick a side he'd like to see win, and kill for it. In my opinion he'll probably side with the townies, since thats easier for him: Kill anyone he thinks is acting mafiaish. Siding with mafia is harder unless the killer can investigate as well, because he has no idea who the mafia IS.

On the other hand I guess he could be completely paranoid and kill anyone he thinks might discover him.

Please note this is just speculation before you go uhoh guyz how does he noe so much

[The Missing Link]

I'm very much with Wyborn, that the Slasher would be independent. Thus, his goal is not to be killed by either side. What we really have to do is consider when the game is allowed to end.

The game normally ends when either the Mafia outnumber the Townies OR the Townies kill off the Mafia. What we have to consider basically are two points:

(1) If the Townies kill all the Mafia, do the Townies win if the Slasher is still alive? (i.e., Is the Slasher "like a Mafioso"?)
(2) If the Mafia outnumbers the non-Mafia, does the Mafia win if the Slasher is still alive? (i.e., Is the Slasher "like a Hero"?)

[Apollo the Just]

UHOH GUYZ HOW DOES HE NOE SO MUCH

seriously, though... there's so many different theories here, we have no way of knowing which is right. That Guy may be right... it would be insanity for the killer to have to murder everyone by himself... sides are better.

...but whoever the Slasher joined would have a huge advantage... one reason I'm not completely convinced that the slasher is with the mafia is that, if that happened, TWO townies would die each night. I'm not quite sure if Crav would do that to us...

If he joined the townies, there might be contradiction... after all, the mafia probably have a secret board like last time; that way they can conspire together. The townies have no such thing; they have to struggle to overcome the evil within them. If they are trying so hard to prevent evil; would they really ally with a murderer? Not to mention that if the slasher joined with mafia, he'd be safe from them because they'd know him. If he joined the townies, he'd be in just as much danger as he'd be if he were completely independent; not to mention that he'd have a larger chance of killing one of his own than the mafia.

that's why I think he's probably either independant or mafia... if he joined the townies, he'd be alone and the odds against him. Why would he do that?

DOUBLE POST yeah, I think Wy and TML are more on the right track. It just seems to make more sense for him to be independent.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

Just randomly choosing anyone to lynch, it gives us too much risk of negating a townie... and imagine if we "get lucky" and choose a Hero??? The ramifications would be horrendous.

Right now, I'm suspicious of anyone who suggests that we lynch a specific member... afer all, I have learnt that Mafia NEED us to lynch each other to help them win easier.

From experience that is still fresh, I also believe that the Mafia NEED to locate and negate the Heroes.

That said, we're ALL (townies and Mafia alike) in danger from the slasher. The slasher doesn't have to care who to negate... they just have to be a homicidal maniac... and enjoy the random panic they're about to create when we realise on Day Two that we lost someone else other than one to a Mafia kill.

YOU ARE ALL INCREDIBLY SUSPICIOUS RIGHT NOW... and I reserve my right to FoS someone when I work out who to be more suspicious of than the rest... for now!!!!

[Apollo the Just]

Hmm... just HotD's presence kind of reminds me why we're here (seeing as how she, along with ZG, was the main seeker-outer of evil last game).

All of this talk of the slasher isn't really getting us anywhere. We can argue all we want, but we're never gonna get anywhere unless the slasher randomly appears and says 'HAY GUYZ IM THE SLASHER AND THIS IS MY ROLE AND HOW I DO THINGS.' Seeing as how I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen anytime soon, I think we're better off trying to find someone to kill. With three possible kills a night, the worst thing we can do is abstain... I don't think ANY of us want to die so soon. We have to get to the bottom of this.

And yet... perhaps this is the perfect conversation to find the slasher...? Let's see who knows something the others don't; who acts oddly secretive about the matter. WE HAVE TO GET SOMEWHERE; whether by abandoning our current argument and arguing over who to lynch; or by continuing this discussion and finding a possible slasher.

Oh, and
FOS: HOTTIE

she has been acting exactly like last game... perhaps that's because she KNOWS that she helped last game so much by leading us all around... think. If she's mafia this round, we're ALL doomed. I'm not saying to attack her or whatnot; merely to TRUST NOBODY. I admit I'm tempted to hear her out and follow her; but we must be independent.

And with that, I'm done... for now.

[ZeldaGirl]

If she's mafia this round, we're ALL doomed.

I was thinking that too.

[Apollo the Just]

...Same goes for you, too, ZG. And if you're BOTH mafia, let's just say we're all gonna die.

At any rate; shall we continue our debate or find someone to lynch? Or both?

[ZeldaGirl]

Oh, and:

FoS: Chunky, for mysteriously disappearing

FoS: ian, just because it's not officially a mafia game unless I do that at least once a day. But, in all seriousness, pointing fingers at Gearz is irresponsible, for now.

FoS: Blake, I'm not ruling out any old mafia members.

While I'm at it:

FoS: Old mafia members, I don't trust you *narrowed eyes*

...at this rate, I should just FoS everyone.

[Daos]

For all we know ZG AND HotD could both be mafia this time. Trust no one until you know for sure they can be trusted.

Edit: I for one plan on taking HotD's old role this time around though and examining all the evidence and making a decision based on the evidence before me. I'm watching you all.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

The Mafia members are just giggling themselves silly over you suggesting I'm Mafia!! And, truly, I imagine because they now know how I work, that I will be an early target... unless they find a Hero to narrow their focus upon.

[Apollo the Just]

I think Hottie's trying to distract us from the horrible truth with those cute grinnies of hers.

In all seriousness, though... as Daos just said and I've said before and ZG implied with her millions of FoS's, we need to get started.

Well, this time Hottie and ZG don't have some huge and deadly alliance... unless they're both mafia...

well, let's just see how the game commences, shall we?

Oh, and Chunky, you ought to post soon before we all lynch you for inactivity.... you're starting to look mighty odd, there.

DOUBLE-POST

<b>FoS: TML<b>