Zelda Mafia Round 2 Night One (IMPORTANT, REPLACEMENT NEEDED!)

[I am nobody]

CL was independent last game, not mafia.

[Wyborn]

Blake, discounting former Mafia members as Mafia is incredibly dangerous, because the blocks have a tendency to fall in peculiar ways.

Don't discount anyone, especially not before the game starts. I was just chewing on the percentages to help me think.

[Cravdraa]

Just to clarify, Yes. HotD is currently on a plane to LA, so she won't be posting until she arrives and gets situated. She told me this before the game even began, but also said that she would make time for the game because she really wanted to play again. I decided to allow it.

Gearz isn't inactive, he's missing in action. He never replied to his role PM. I'm giving him until the end of day 1 to show up and then he will be replaced as soon as I can find somebody. He's still a bit of a newbie, so it's possible that he doesn't even know how to read or answer a PM. That makes this difficult.

[NintendoGod]

In the town hall lobby, a balding man slowly walked into the room. He wore a simple smile on his face and carried an organ over his shoulder with surprising ease, despite it's large bulk. He had tried to leave the town for his daily walk, but one of the town guards had stopped him and requested he go to the town hall - something about the town being sealed until further notice. He spied an untended copy of the Times in a nearby chair, so he moved over and began to read the troubling headline, muttering worries to himself as he moved further down the page.

"Mafia at large? Terrible! And a murderer going after musicians? What if I'm next? Oh dear, oh dear..."

As if to placate his fears, the man began turning the crank on his brass organ. Slowly, the sound of a haunting tune began to fill the lobby.

Doo do-doo, doo do-doo, doooo do-do-do-do-do-do, doo doo do-do-doo, doo doo do-do-doo...

OoC: Though not my role, Guru-Guru is awesome.

For your statement, Blake, I'd say it sets a dangerous precedent. We really shouldn't discount anyone from the Mafia just because the odds are slim of them being in it. As for your odds, they sound correct; 7 townies and 3 mafia with 1 independent member in the last game is closer to 2-1 than 3-1.

[I am nobody]

^ 8 townies.

[The Missing Link]

Unlike some Terminians, some people actually have to work for a good part of the day... and thus are unable to attend every single thrill-packed hour of this exciting town meeting.

Without a slasher, the numbers were going to be 14:7 townies against mafia, or at least something thereabouts. Thus, the townies get more or less four or five rounds before things get dire for them (depending upon how many times townies are accidentally lynched or hung juries are found). With the slasher, 15:5:1 sounds more or less right.

Furthermore, Wy's numbers are correct more or less, depending upon how you split everyone up. It's not worth computing the full odds out on this one, namely because the last game doesn't matter, so we're really just dealing with a random draw. So, let's be honest with ourselves. We've got approximately 70% townies, approximately 25% mafia, and whatever happens to be left makes up the rest of the world here. Most other numbers don't matter at this point.

What would be good news for the townies is that they've got 10 extra heads--more or less--than the Mafia. That would normally equate to seven or so rounds before things get critical for them (due to lynching their own or non-votes), but the possibility of a slasher makes things a little more interesting since he or she can easily escape votes amongst everyone else. So cut that down to four good and safe rounds for the townies before they'll HAVE to start knocking Mafia and the Slasher out of the water.

Really, we have till Friday until we need to vote, and I don't think we can vote at this stage just yet with so little information. But I think calling in an abstain vote doesn't make sense at this point either.

Actually, I'm going to make a correction. Wy managed to hit me with numbers when I wasn't thinking. If we've got 19 or so aligned people, the mafia is usually outnumbered 2:1. I'd say it's more distributed 13:6:1:1 or 14:6:1.

[Marilink]

Day 1 is really awkward. There's not evidence of anything yet, but if we all abstain, someone's gonna die tonight.

So, to get the ball rolling:

What course of action should we take?

I don't want to abstain too soon, because something might crop up before the day's done. But with the lack of content I can't even FoS anyone as of right now.

So my question still stands: What should we do to find things out today?

[X-3]

RP Time.
---
A flurry of dust entered the room, and a yellow-ish fox creature emerged. It looked around, glancing at the discussing people, who had not noticed the creature in the midst of their arguement. It's multiple tails smacked into the man with the organ, causing him to almost drop his instrument. The fox creature sighed, then sat down. "Carry on." it said, wisely.

[Wyborn]

People, the odds are 3:1. I'd be willing to bet money on Crav keeping the odds the same as in the last game.

As for Gearz....

Well, if he's inactive and is seriously slowing down the game, we could just hang him.

Just a thought.

[The Missing Link]

People, the odds are 3:1.

By my count, there were 12 players last time. 4 were Mafia. 8 were townies (if you count the heroes as townie aligned). That's 2:1 -- twice as many townies as Mafia.

[X-3]

That should be avoided. For all we know, Gearz could be a hero. I think we should wait for Gearz to show up, rather then hang him.

[Wyborn]

By my count, there were 12 players last time. 4 were Mafia. 8 were townies (if you count the heroes as townie aligned). That's 2:1 -- twice as many townies as Mafia.

You're off there - CL was independent, was working towards being a Mafia, but could have chosen to be a Mafia.

To start with we had 3 Mafia and 9 Townies (counting heroes and independents as townies). 3:1.

It's true we might have more independents here, but we can't automatically assume they're Mafia.

Double post: Could have chosen to be a TOWNIE, rather.

[The Missing Link]

That's fair then. I only went on the final tally since I didn't bother to read the whole thread. I got the 2:1 ratio in my head from the Wiki' entry on the game, and it seemed to fit with the final tally. So I'll give you that one.

[Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds]

Doodz. Seriously.

Just because numbers state one thing, doesn't mean it goes into practice in a game like this. None of us can be certain (unless Crav tells us exactly) how many of what is in this game.

Also, comparing it to the last game is foolish. We've no way of knowing who the Mafia are, and if they really "learned" anything from the way the last one played.

WHAT IF, because we're all assuming they've learnt from it and will be playing differently, they use a similar behavioural pattern to hide amongst us? Wouldn't that be a perfect disguise? To act the same as the old Mafia, simply because we believe no one would be so silly as to do that?

Day One isn't a time for lightning-fast voting, because we don't have much to work with. We can go on about the same old suspicions: they're inactive, they speak out too much, they change their mind on the slightest whim. But honestly, unless someone really trips up, I don't know how comfortable I will be with voting until the last minute.

We definitely need to put in a joined effort to weed out the Mafia, but we also need patience. Wait for more people to post, to maybe make the mistake of behaving somewhat "out of character".

(EXCITING!!! )

--Also, I work odd hours and sleep a lot, and I don't really "live" anywhere at the moment (moving from one of my relative's house to another for now), so I can't guarantee when I'll be online or how much I can post. I hope you can all be patient with me o_o *supar hugz for all*--

[Wyborn]

Throwing around half-baked game theory doesn't do much, but we cannot ignore the last game; when the third round comes around we can't ignore this one. It's a learning experience, to help people learn how to pick out Mafia members.

I agree we need to get people talking in order to pick them out, but complacency right now would be the ultimate sin.

We have a potential two kills (or even three, since the Hero is probably another killer-character and may have bad aim) every night. Even the Mafia can't stand for that - the chance of the Slasher hitting one of them and revealing their whole operation is too high.

We don't have to do it now, but before the day is done we need to figure out who we're going to hang. We can't afford not to - losing that many townies a night is going to end this game fast.

[Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds]

We also can't pick someone until more people surface. I agree, Wyborn. We can't sit around waiting for either the Mafia, the Slasher or even the Hero to make the kills for us. The Townies will be dropping like flies o_O

[Rayman FREAK]

Alright, there's been some activity since I last visited. This is good, though ultimately there were only a few new developments that may merit further investigation.

As has been said at least a few times, Day 1 is just a very strange day for everybody. With only one post by Crav and no night actions taken, it's difficult to speculate much outside of the realm of "suspicious" posting behavior. If we decide to lynch today, these kinds of suspicions will almost definitely determine the vote, and because of this, players are generally reluctant to point fingers or ask questions. This was avoided in round 1 by an abstain vote.

As of now, I'm not at all sure whether I'd prefer to lynch today or wait. I agree with Wyborn and TML that the distribution of role categories is probably similar to what it was last round, meaning an abstain vote would carry generally the same impact as it did last round. However, and this is a major caveat in my mind, the threat of the serial killer means we could see 2 deaths in one night, and the second death is more likely than not to be that of a townie. This suggests to me that we should indeed start taking action sooner than the players of round 1 did.

I'd like to hear more thoughts on this matter, as the gameplay for this round will be greatly different given one situation or the other.

Until then, however, based on what I've read, I believe the majority of players are looking for a vote today. This would merit pointing out "suspicious" behavior. Since we have until Friday evening (I believe), and since we could possibly decide to abstain, I believe it is too early for FoSing, let alone voting. Still, I would like some points to be addressed. To that end, I will recount the observations I've made that I would like a response from the poster about. Until I have heard a response, my stance on the behavior will remain neutral.

Chunky's FoS to Wyborn and Silvie was certainly unwonted given his round 1 performance. It also suggests that he didn't carefully read the third page of this topic. He failed to respond to Wyborn's questioning him of his motives, even though his post was only made 14 minutes before Wy's. Although Wy seems to have let the issue slide, I would still like to know his motives.

Wyborn's FoS to Chunky was also unwonted given his round 1 performance. It's made even more apparent to me in contrast to SilverWind's handling of the situation, which she always marked with OoC tags. Wyborn, given his knowledge of the game, clearly understands the dangers of pointing fingers early on. At the same time, Chunky's FoS was, I feel, in poor taste. I'd like a comment from Wyborn about this.

Blake's decision to dismiss the former mafia members as the villains this round, I will echo, was a dangerous one. It unnerves me even more because he was a mafia member last round. I would like Blake to at least realize the danger of this decision, and would appreciate a more thorough explanation of his decision.

[Wyborn]

I was a Mafia in round one. Me acting differently means pretty much nothing at all. Even if I was Mafia again I'd be acting differently - or not. Who knows? That's why it's hard to apply meaning.

Chunky's FoS made me suspicious, but it actually offended SilverWind because the whole stated reason amounted to a personal attack on our integrity. That's why we reacted differently.

And no, I'm not letting the Chunky matter slide. Next time he's on I'm going to grill him about it until he smells like a hamburger.

[The Missing Link]

Hear hear! In short: We need to start getting serious about voting around Thursday (which would be what? 3:00pm of Day One ), but unless someone commits a grave error by then, pushing a vote seems to me something that is not in the Townies' favour.

[Apollo the Just]

We need to find a way to get people talking so that people can find odd behaviors and vote based off of suspicion. We need a spark like that that will tip someone off, start conversation, get someone hung, and WON'T BE DOWN RIGHT IMPULSIVE.

So... what to do?

The thought of three kills a night is scary and overwhelming. The townies fear the mafia kills, EVERYONE fears the slasher kill, and the mafia (but also the townies and slasher) fear impulsive and badly-aimed hero kills. All in all, even though they are less in number, the mafia has an advantage. They will almost without a doubt kill an enemy every night. The chance of the slasher killing them out of everyone is fairly small. Also, the chance of the hero killing them isn't too high. They have an overwhelming advantage and they know it.

That is why the day is so important. As was portrayed last game, it is the townies' chance to get the mafia, and it can be done correctly. However, the mafia could just as well trick us into hanging one of them.

So, I know I'm pretty much just following in HotD's footsteps, but WE HAVE TO USE OUR OWN BRAINS. Being led around like a herd of sheep will get us nowhere... the mafia will get us to hang one of our own, and we'll die slowly due to this, mafia kills, and maybe even slasher & hero kills. WE HAVE TO USE OUR OWN BRAINS. Read closely, observe, and act... but act SMARTLY. Impulsiveness will lead to our demise.

Impulsiveness is suspicious. Following others is suspicious. Also, abstaining willingly is suspicious because of the stakes we have each night against us. Because so many people will die each night, few of us will survive very long. So please, people... make use of the time you are actually alive, because you HAVE TO REALIZE that you WILL PROBABLY DIE VERY SOON. Three of us at least will die tonight. Make use of your small time, and act- but act smart.

Please.